Julian Darley, Director of the Post Carbon Institute, author of High Noon for Natural Gas and the forthcoming Relocalization, gave an Earth Week presentation in Yellowknife on Saturday. Darley argues that, although the natural gas production peak lags the peak for oil, it will have profound implications for our way of life – and soon. Canadians are very dependent on natural gas (it heats the majority of our buildings, for example) and free trade means that our supply can be commandeered to meet US demand.
I won’t attempt to reproduce Julian’s entire argument here (I may write more on the topic when I have finished reading his book). I feel convinced by the evidence he presents that a) our dependence on fossil fuels is extreme, b) we are running out of fossil fuels (except coal, but I will get to that later), and c) we need to change the infrastructure of our country very quickly or suffer dire economic, environmental, and social consequences. If you have seen The End of Suburbia documentary, you will be familiar with the general idea.
This is especially relevant to northerners because of the Mackenzie Gas Project. Using NWT natural gas to extract the Alberta tar sands is inefficient and won’t really solve our energy problems anyway. He also mentioned that many of the gas fields in the north may turn out to be empty due to leakage into the atmosphere.
I am mostly worried about fossil fuel use as a contributing factor to climate change, but Julian’s warnings are about a completely different, more immediate, problem; he is telling us we have to kick our fossil fuel addiction now before our supplies run out relatively abruptly – with all the attendant human survival problems that may result.
Alternative fuels could help in the long run, but it is nearly impossible to build the infrastructure we need to run our society on alternative energy in the short time we have left. Even though Julian’s case is not strictly an environmental one (and I apologize if I am over-simplifying), his prescriptions for our society are very similar to those of climate change activists: eliminate private cars, reduce the distances that goods must travel to reach markets, close production loops to eliminate wasted byproducts.
It occurred to me that the crisis in fossil fuel supply is arriving just in time to mitigate climate change – if we don’t have the oil or natural gas to burn, then we won’t burn it and climate change will stop. When I asked about this, Julian pointed out that we still have vast reserves of coal which we may be tempted to use. Julian seems to agree with Tim Flannery that coal is a poor solution to human energy requirements; if we get desperate enough to use coal as a mass substitute for oil and natural gas, then we will really be in trouble.